The Ganges River basin, which flows through India, had the “lowest snow persistence” at 17 percent below average worse than 15 percent in 2018, according to the report released by the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). Millions dependent on Himalayan snow for water face a “very serious” risk of shortages this year after one of the lowest rates of snowfall, scientists have warned.
“This is a wake-up call for researchers, policymakers, and downstream communities,” said Sher Muhammad, author of the report released by the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). Snowmelt is the source of about a quarter of the total water flow of 12 major river basins that originate high in the region, according to the report.
The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region heavily depends on the cryosphere — frozen water on the Earth’s surface, including snow, permafrost, and ice from glaciers, lakes and rivers. This frozen water is a critical source of freshwater for around 24 crore people living in the HKH region and has far-reaching benefits for around 165 crore people downstream, the ICIMOD said.
While snow levels fluctuate each year, scientists say climate change is driving erratic rainfall and shifting weather patterns.
“Lower accumulation of snow and fluctuating levels of snow pose a very serious increased risk of water shortages, particularly this year,” said the report.
It measured “snow persistence” — the time snow remains on the ground — with levels dropping almost a fifth below normal this year across the wider Hindu Kush and Himalaya region.
“This year’s snow persistence (18.5 percent below normal) is the second lowest in the past 22 years, narrowly trailing the record low of 19 percent set in 2018,” Muhammad.
Apart from Nepal, the inter-governmental ICIMOD organisation includes member countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar and Pakistan. The organisation has been monitoring snow in the region for over two decades, noting that 2024 marked a “significant anomaly”.
Alarm bells ringing
The report warned that ICIMOD “observations and projections indicate significant changes in the timing and intensity of stream flows, with snow a key part”.
“Snow plays a particularly important role in ensuring seasonal water availability,” it added. Snowmelt accounts for around 23 percent of the total water flow of 12 major river basins originating in the HKH.
According to observations, the Ganges River basin, which flows through India, had the “lowest snow persistence” that ICIMOD has recorded, 17 percent below average, worse than 15 percent in 2018.
The Helmand River basin showed the most significant drop in snow persistence at 31.8 percent below normal. Its previous lowest level was in 2018, with a 42 percent reduction. The Indus basin recorded a 23.3 percent fall below normal in snow persistence, the lowest level in 22 years. The previous lowest year for this basin was 2018, with a 9.4 percent shortfall.
Road ahead
Miriam Jackson, ICIMOD’s senior cryosphere specialist, said agencies must take proactive steps to address possible drought situations, especially in early summer. “It’s clear that governments and people in this region need urgent support to adapt to changes in snow patterns that carbon emissions have already locked in. G20 countries need to cut emissions faster than ever before to prevent even more changes that could prove disastrous to major population centres and industries,” she said.
The experts said promoting rainwater harvesting and establishing local water committees may help mitigate the immediate impacts of below-normal snowfall on the water supply in the HKH region.
However, to ensure long-term resilience to climate change, countries sharing transboundary rivers must collaborate to update their water management laws. Such actions are crucial to addressing water shortages in South Asia, which relies on snowmelt, the experts added.
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